新冠病毒变种：我们知道什么？（来自BBC官网）

介绍一篇来自BBC官网的新冠变种病毒的报道。
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下面是正文：

New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
新的冠状病毒变种：我们知道什么？

By James Gallagher； Health and science correspondent
作者：James Gallagher； 卫生和科学记者
20 December； 12月20日

The rapid spread of a new variant of coronavirus has been blamed for the introduction of strict tier four mixing rules for millions of people, harsher restrictions on mixing at Christmas in England, Scotland and Wales, and other countries placing the UK on a travel ban.
So how has it gone from being non-existent to the most common form of the virus in parts of England in a matter of months?
The government's advisers on new infections now say they have "high" confidence that it is more able to transmit than other variants.
All the work is at an early stage, contains huge uncertainties and a long list of unanswered questions.
As I've written before, viruses mutate all the time and it's vital to keep a laser focus on whether the virus' behaviour is changing.
冠状病毒新变种的迅速传播，被指责为对数百万人实行严格的四级混合规则，在英格兰、苏格兰和威尔士的圣诞节对混合进行更严厉的限制，以及其他国家将英国置于旅行禁令之上。
那么，它是如何在几个月内从不存在到英格兰部分地区最常见的病毒形式的？政府关于新感染的顾问现在说，他们有 "高 "的信心，它比其他变种更能够传播。
所有的工作都处于早期阶段，包含了巨大的不确定性和一长串未解答的问题。正如我以前写过的那样，病毒一直在变异，保持对病毒行为是否在改变的激光关注至关重要。

Why is this variant causing concern?
为什么这种变异会引起关注？

Three things are coming together that mean it is attracting attention:
- It is rapidly replacing other versions of the virus
- It has mutations that affect part of the virus likely to be important
- Some of those mutations have already been shown in the lab to increase the ability of the virus to infect cells
All of these come together to build a case for a virus that can spread more easily.
However, we do not have absolute certainty. New strains can become more common simply by being in the right place at the right time - such as London, which had only tier two restrictions until recently.
But already the justification for tier four restrictions is in part to reduce the spread of the variant.
"Laboratory experiments are required, but do you want to wait weeks or months [to see the results and take action to limit the spread]? Probably not in these circumstances," Prof Nick Loman, from the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium, told me.
三件事情的出现意味着它正在吸引人们的注意。
- 它正在迅速取代其他版本的病毒。
- 它的突变影响了部分病毒可能是重要的。
- 其中一些突变已经在实验室中被证明可以增加病毒感染细胞的能力。
所有这些汇集在一起，就形成了一个病毒更容易传播的案例。
然而，我们并没有绝对的把握。新的病毒株只需在正确的时间出现在正确的地点--比如伦敦，直到最近才有二级限制，就会变得更加普遍。但已经四级限制的理由部分是为了减少变种的扩散。
"实验室实验是需要的，但你想等几周或几个月[看到结果并采取行动限制扩散]吗？在这种情况下可能不会，"Covid-19基因组学英国联盟的Nick Loman教授告诉我。

How much faster is it spreading?
它的传播速度有多快？

It was first detected in September. In November around a quarter of cases in London were the new variant. This reached nearly two-thirds of cases in mid-December. You can see how the variant has come to dominate the results of testing in some centres such as the Milton Keynes Lighthouse Laboratory.
9月首次发现该病。11月，伦敦约有四分之一的病例是新变种。12月中旬达到了近三分之二的病例。你可以看到该变种如何在一些中心，如米尔顿凯恩斯灯塔实验室的检测结果中占据主导地位。

（上图不做翻译）

Mathematicians have been running the numbers on the spread of different variants in an attempt to calculate how much of an edge this one might have.
But teasing apart what is due to people's behaviour and what is due to the virus is hard.
The figure mentioned by Prime Minister Boris Johnson was that the variant may be up to 70% more transmissible. He said this may be increasing the R number - which indicates if an epidemic is growing or shrinking - by 0.4.
That 70% number appeared in a presentation by Dr Erik Volz, from Imperial College London, on Friday.
During the talk he said: "It is really too early to tell… but from what we see so far it is growing very quickly, it is growing faster than [a previous variant] ever grew, but it is important to keep an eye on this."
There is no "nailed on" figure for how much more infectious the variant may be. Scientists, whose work is not yet public, have told me figures both much higher and much lower than 70%.
But there remain questions about whether it is any more infectious at all.
"The amount of evidence in the public domain is woefully inadequate to draw strong or firm opinions on whether the virus has truly increased transmission," said Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham.
数学家们一直在计算不同变种的传播数字，试图计算出这种变种可能有多大的优势。
但要分清什么是由于人们的行为，什么是由于病毒，是很难的。
首相鲍里斯-约翰逊提到的数据是，这种变种的传播性可能高达70%。他说，这可能会使R数--表明疫情是增长还是缩小--增加0.4。
这个70%的数字出现在上周五伦敦帝国理工学院的Erik Volz博士的演讲中。
在演讲中，他说 "现在说这些还为时过早... 但从我们目前看到的情况来看，它的增长速度非常快， 它的增长速度比[以前的变种]的增长速度还要快， 但重要的是要注意这一点。"
这个变种的传染性可能有多大，目前还没有一个 "板上钉钉 "的数字。科学家们，他们的工作还没有公开，他们告诉我的数字既远高于70%，也远低于70%。
但对于它是否具有更强的传染性仍然存在疑问。
诺丁汉大学的病毒学家乔纳森-鲍尔教授说："公共领域的证据数量严重不足，无法就病毒是否真的增加了传播性得出有力或坚定的意见"。

How far has it spread?
它的传播范围有多大？

It is thought the variant either emerged in a patient in the UK or has been imported from a country with a lower ability to monitor coronavirus mutations.
The variant can be found across the UK, except Northern Ireland, but it is heavily concentrated in London, the South East and eastern England. Cases elsewhere in the country do not seem to have taken off.
Data from Nextstrain, which has been monitoring the genetic codes of the viral samples around the world, suggest cases in Denmark and Australia have come from the UK. The Netherlands has also reported cases.
据认为，该变异体要么出现在英国的患者身上，要么是从监测冠状病毒变异能力较低的国家输入的。
除北爱尔兰外，英国各地均可发现该变异体，但主要集中在伦敦、东南部和英格兰东部。该国其他地方的病例似乎没有起色。
Nextstrain公司一直在监测世界各地病毒样本的遗传密码，该公司的数据显示，丹麦和澳大利亚的病例来自英国。荷兰也有病例报告。

（上图不做翻译）

A similar variant that has emerged in South Africa shares some of the same mutations, but appears to be unrelated to this one.
南非出现的一个类似的变异体也有一些相同的突变，但似乎与这个变异体无关。

Has this happened before?
这种情况以前发生过吗？

Yes.
The virus that was first detected in Wuhan, China, is not the same one you will find in most corners of the world.
The D614G mutation emerged in Europe in February and became the globally dominant form of the virus.
Another, called A222V, spread across Europe and was linked to people's summer holidays in Spain.
是的。
中国武汉首次发现的病毒，与你在世界大多数角落发现的病毒不同。
D614G突变型于2月在欧洲出现，成为该病毒的全球主导形式。
另一种名为A222V的病毒在欧洲蔓延，并与人们在西班牙的暑假有关。

What do we know about the new mutations?
我们对新的突变了解多少？

An initial analysis of the new variant has been published and identifies 17 potentially important alterations.
There have been changes to the spike protein - this is the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway to our body's cells.
One mutation called N501Y alters the most important part of the spike, known as the "receptor-binding domain".
This is where the spike makes first contact with the surface of our body's cells. Any changes that make it easier for the virus to get inside are likely to give it an edge.
"It looks and smells like an important adaptation," said Prof Loman.
The other mutation - a H69/V70 deletion, in which a small part of the spike is removed - has emerged several times before, including famously in infected mink.
Work by Prof Ravi Gupta at the University of Cambridge has suggested this mutation increases infectivity two-fold in lab experiments.
Studies by the same group suggest the deletion makes antibodies from the blood of survivors less effective at attacking the virus.
Prof Gupta told me: "It is rapidly increasing, that's what's worried government, we are worried, most scientists are worried."
对新变种的初步分析已经公布，并确定了17种潜在的重要改变。
穗蛋白发生了变化--这是病毒用来打开通往我们身体细胞的大门的钥匙。
其中一个名为N501Y的突变改变了尖峰蛋白最重要的部分，即 "受体结合域"。
这是尖峰与我们身体细胞表面首次接触的地方。任何使病毒更容易进入体内的变化都可能给它带来优势。
"它看起来和闻起来都是一种重要的适应性，"洛曼教授说。
另一种突变--H69/V70缺失，其中一小部分尖峰被去除--以前曾多次出现，包括在受感染的水貂中出现过。
剑桥大学Ravi Gupta教授的工作表明，在实验室实验中，这种突变会使感染性增加两倍。
同一小组的研究表明，这种缺失使得幸存者血液中的抗体在攻击病毒时效率降低。
古普塔教授告诉我。"它正在迅速增加，这就是政府所担心的， 我们很担心，大多数科学家都很担心。"

Where has it come from?
它从哪里来？

The variant is unusually highly mutated.
The most likely explanation is the variant has emerged in a patient with a weakened immune system that was unable to beat the virus.
Instead their body became a breeding ground for the virus to mutate.
该变异体异常地高度变异。
最有可能的解释是，这种变异体出现在免疫系统衰弱，无法战胜病毒的患者身上。
他们的身体反而成了病毒变异的温床。

Does it make the infection more deadly?
是否会使感染更加致命？

There is no evidence to suggest that it does, although this will need to be monitored.
However, just increasing transmission would be enough to cause problems for hospitals.
If the new variant means more people are infected more quickly, that would in turn lead to more people needing hospital treatment.
没有证据表明确实如此，尽管这需要监测。
然而，仅仅是增加传播就足以给医院带来问题。
如果新的变异体意味着更多的人更快地受到感染，这又会导致更多的人需要住院治疗。

Will the vaccines work against the new variant?
疫苗对新的变异体是否有效？

Almost certainly yes, or at least for now.
All three leading vaccines develop an immune response against the existing spike, which is why the question comes up.
Vaccines train the immune system to attack several different parts of the virus, so even though part of the spike has mutated, the vaccines should still work.
"But if we let it add more mutations, then you start worrying," said Prof Gupta."This virus is potentially on a pathway for vaccine escape, it has taken the first couple of steps towards that."
Vaccine escape happens when the virus changes so it dodges the full effect of the vaccine and continues to infect people.
This may be the most concerning element of what is happening with the virus.
This variant is just the latest to show the virus is continuing to adapt as it infects more and more of us.
A presentation by Prof David Robertson, from the University of Glasgow on Friday, concluded: "The virus will probably be able to generate vaccine escape mutants."
That would put us in a position similar to flu, where the vaccines need to be regularly updated. Fortunately the vaccines we have are very easy to tweak.
几乎可以肯定是的，或者至少目前是这样。
三种主要的疫苗都会针对现有的尖峰形成免疫反应，这就是为什么会出现这个问题。
疫苗会训练免疫系统攻击病毒的几个不同部分，所以即使部分尖峰已经变异，疫苗应该仍然有效。
"但如果我们让它增加更多的突变，那么你就会开始担心，"Gupta教授说。"这种病毒有可能走上疫苗逃逸的道路，它已经朝着这个方向迈出了最初的几步。"
疫苗逃逸发生时，病毒会发生变化，从而躲避疫苗的全部作用，继续感染人。
这可能是该病毒发生的最令人担忧的因素。
这种变异只是最新的迹象，表明病毒在感染越来越多的人的同时，也在不断适应。
来自格拉斯哥大学的大卫-罗伯逊教授在周五的一份报告中总结道。"病毒可能会产生疫苗逃逸突变体"
这将使我们陷入类似流感的境地，疫苗需要定期更新。幸运的是，我们拥有的疫苗非常容易调整。

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